Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 32.624093 38.645818 45.218984 52.895212 61.580601 71.069985 82.187764
2025-06-08 22.681594 30.436342 39.727967 51.542209 66.014549 83.011575 104.316892
2025-06-15 18.229494 26.915478 38.075209 53.162491 72.695037 96.780610 128.337814
2025-06-22 14.253596 22.997108 34.967347 52.051089 75.244375 105.037149 145.517725
2025-06-29 12.128969 21.124237 34.119621 53.513976 80.872177 117.168784 167.900272
2025-07-06 9.368549 17.759261 30.612244 50.726470 80.253006 120.740728 178.963228
2025-07-13 8.212844 16.675213 30.257238 52.313025 85.690276 132.608551 201.518712
2025-07-20 7.196889 15.625906 29.775479 53.568424 90.606179 143.867393 223.605582
2025-07-27 6.427007 14.863273 29.626986 55.253781 96.170285 156.207462 247.613960
2025-08-03 5.707338 14.057721 29.282678 56.535248 101.113327 167.780404 270.891180
2025-08-10 4.808560 12.724951 27.837396 55.820035 102.810766 174.537314 287.347613
2025-08-17 4.217297 11.910675 27.212561 56.400065 106.541025 184.427184 308.680088
2025-08-24 3.608168 10.991786 26.383846 56.740603 110.222252 194.909505 332.122078
2025-08-31 2.877991 9.620805 24.494312 55.006488 110.358928 199.962300 347.720628
2025-09-07 2.566120 9.202675 24.468893 56.697542 116.405269 214.583741 378.504138
2025-09-14 2.083527 8.195379 23.036500 55.526488 117.319746 220.914521 396.533908
2025-09-21 1.857741 7.846503 22.995855 57.066776 123.125336 235.438066 427.938399
2025-09-28 1.409682 6.672283 20.864628 54.131328 120.535672 235.838363 436.716070
2025-10-05 1.267637 6.441042 20.947616 55.802282 126.581260 251.000845 469.824327
2025-10-12 1.126284 6.165638 20.876823 57.124095 132.015516 265.294171 501.918500
2025-10-19 1.019276 5.981476 21.011909 58.898116 138.397729 281.434042 537.509566
2025-10-26 0.908350 5.742188 20.963202 60.246630 144.001697 296.388945 571.529852
2025-11-02 0.745642 5.215655 20.037626 59.494035 145.373937 303.892766 593.231040